Online Coaching – Perfect Timing

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I hope everyone is safe and well in these difficult times. One thing you are probably doing is spending a lot more time at home. And with that comes a lot more time online, particularly using internet communication tools like Skype and Zoom.

You may have noticed that I offer personal finance coaching. This also includes online coaching, which was initially meant for people living outside the Kanto area, but is fast becoming the norm in these times of social distancing.

Now would be a great time to get your finances in order and take advantage of one of the best opportunities to invest you will see in years. Below is the 25 year chart of the S&P 500. You can see quite clearly the benefit of investing during severe market downturns in 2000 and 2008. Why not make use of the extra bandwidth you have and put some money to work for you?

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Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/

Among other things, I can help you figure out:

  • How much you have available to invest and how much you should be keeping in cash for emergencies.
  • What currency is best for you.
  • What kind of account would be right for you.
  • How to allocate when you get the account.
  • How to maintain your investments over the long run.

More information, including rates, is available here. If you would like to book a coaching session, or you have some questions before getting started, please get in touch with me via the Contact Form.

Spice up your Investments with Satellites

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Is the Covid-19 market plunge getting you down? Tired of being told not to panic and stay diversified? (by people like me!) Are you thirsting for something interesting and exciting to invest in rather than the usual steady and boring stuff?

Then this post is for you! Let’s look at something fun! However, before we jump in, please read here to make sure you understand what I mean by Core / Satellite holdings. In short, core is the sensible diversified allocation linked to your base currency and risk profile that you put 80-90% of your money in. Satellite is the other 10-20% where you swing for the fences!

Some areas that are typically classed as satellite holdings would be: hedge funds, direct stock picking, commodities, structured notes, private equity, biotech, property and cryptocurrency. This is by no means a definitive list and there are many other investments that would be considered non-core, depending on your risk profile.

Here are a few unique satellite holdings that I have come across recently:

ARKK – Ark Innovation ETF: Run by Cathie Wood, the Best Investor You’ve Never Heard of, Ark is a stock picking fund, focussed on innovation in DNA Technologies, Energy, Automation, Manufacturing, Next Generation Internet and Fintech. Ark are currently looking rather smart for their heavy backing of Tesla. Their holdings contain a heady mix of 3D Printing, Gene Therapy, Biotech and Blockchain Technology. This level of active management in highly specialised areas would usually come with a hedge fund 2 and 20 price tag, but the expense ratio is just 0.75%. ARKK is listed on the NYSE so you will need a brokerage account that can access that exchange to access. More here.

GBTC – Grayscale Bitcoin Trust: According to this article, a recent study by brokerage giant Charles Schwab showed that GBTC is in the top 5 holdings for Millennial investors, (currently aged between 25 and 39) ahead of Netflix and Walt Disney. GBTC offers investors access to Bitcoin returns via their brokerage account. The Trust trades like a stock or ETF and, for a 2% annual fee, it takes care of the issue of custody of crypto, so you don’t have to worry about losing your private keys. Bitcoin purists would probably rather hold the real thing, but GBTC is proving popular as an alternative way to get exposure to Bitcoin returns. This could be interesting with the upcoming Bitcoin Halving on the horizon. I would note that not all brokerages allow trading in GBTC. From what I can tell it is available in the US on Schwab, Etrade, TD Ameritrade and Interactive Brokers. More here.

CHNA / CNCR – Loncar China Biopharma ETF / Loncar Cancer Immunotherapy ETF: Given the origin of the novel corona virus Covid-19, China Biopharma is kind of a hot topic right now. Despite the current panic, this article argues that now could be a good time to buy. Companies in the Cancer Immunotherapy space are harnessing the power of the body’s own immune system to offer an innovative alternative to current treatments, which makes for an exciting and potentially rewarding investment opportunity. Loncar’s ETFs are NASDAQ listed. More here.

If you are living in Japan or elsewhere in Asia and looking for a US brokerage account then your best bet for getting an account open is probably Interactive Brokers. See this post for more details on brokerage accounts.

Hopefully that’s helped take your mind off the doom and gloom. Please note that these are not recommendations, and all of the investments mentioned should be considered as belonging in the High Risk category. That’s why they are satellite holdings. We are talking about around 5% of your total investments in any one of these strategies. Please feel free to share any interesting satellite holdings you like. I would love to hear from you.

Note: I have no affiliation with any of the investment companies mentioned above.

Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.

Corona Correction

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Wash your hands, don’t touch your face, and there’s plenty of toilet paper!

When panic sets in, it’s good to take a step back and focus on the simple things you can do, rather than joining the stampede for the exit. And panic certainly set in last week in global stock markets. You may remember that a correction is defined as a 10% decline in market value. The one last week was one of the fastest ever, and the drop is now approaching 15%. 20% is bear market territory.

Furthermore, it wasn’t just stocks that fell. The 3%+ fall in the gold price on Friday (likely profit taking) shows that being well diversified means having more than one defensive strategy in your portfolio. Even truly diversified portfolios were down between 3% and 8% from their highs last week, depending on risk profile.

Clearly we don’t know where we are heading now in terms of the spread of Covid-19. It seems likely we will see a significant increase in cases worldwide over the next few weeks. However, it is interesting to note that in China, where the virus originated, infection rates are slowing and business is slowly starting to resume. With luck, the rest of the world will follow a similar pattern. If it does, then more market panic followed by a quick recovery is not an unreasonable expectation, particularly as central banks are likely to respond with further easing.

So what should we be doing? I’m certainly not offering trading advice at a time like this but there are certain common sense actions worth considering:

  • If you were already well diversified, relax. You were setup correctly and have done the best you can. Perhaps look at rebalancing when the panic dies down.
  • Same if you are investing monthly and averaging into the market. You get to buy cheaper this month!
  • If you were heavily invested in stocks, how much have you really “lost”? The S&P was near all time highs before last week, so a pullback would not have been out of the ordinary, even without the Covid-19 panic. If you invested capital recently your timing was not good, but do you want to sell into the panic and book the loss? Learn your lesson and move on.
  • If you are looking at the current drop as a buying opportunity, good for you. Get your capital into position – if it’s just a simple domestic transfer to your investment account then no problem. If you have to send money overseas it may take a little longer to organise.
  • Even pros will struggle to call the bottom. Let the panic subside and buy slowly. Maybe allocate a little each week. Markets could always fall further.

Most of all, look after your health and stay sensible. Without pointing fingers at the reactions in particular countries, I saw footage of hundreds of people lining up, bunched close together, to buy masks. It’s probably not a good time to follow the herd…

And yes, Japan makes its own toilet paper and there are warehouses full of it waiting to be delivered to stores soon!

Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.

 

 

 

Coronavirus and Markets – What Can We Learn from SARS?

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There is still a lot of uncertainty about the the severity and duration of the current coronavirus epidemic, with some health experts predicting it will all be over by April, while others see a large proportion of the global population at risk of infection. When it comes to the effect on markets, it’s logical to take a look the impact of the SARS crisis for guidance. However, it’s important to remember that, not only are we talking about two distinct disease profiles, but we are living in a different world economically from seventeen years ago.

The SARS epidemic, which originated in Guangdong province in China, ran from November 2002 to July 2003. It had a significant, but relatively short term, market and economic impact. The most heavily hit sectors were tourism, retail (particularly luxury), airlines, casino and property. For 2003 GDP growth fell about 1% for China and 2.5% for Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s economy went into recession in April 2003 before recovering substantially.

The MSCI China fell 8.6% on the SARS outbreak, but rebounded by more than 30% in the three months after April 2003. Stocks in Hong Kong fell by a fifth but also came back strongly. Cathay Pacific shares dropped almost 30% from December 2002 to April 2003, before bouncing back to almost double through the next year. In Japan the Nikkei 225 also dropped by almost 6% but was quickly restored once the crisis was deemed over.

The Hong Kong property market was already suffering the after-effects of the Asian financial crisis, and SARS extended the decline by a year or so. Home prices fell by 8% in the first seven months of the SARS epidemic before rebounding for the rest of the year. Conversely the current coronavirus has come along at a high point in the housing cycle.

The US stock market tends to shrug off epidemics somewhat easily. The table below, taken from Dow Jones Market Data in this MarketWatch article, shows how the S&P 500 has reacted over 6 months and 12 months in previous outbreaks:

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When assessing the likely impact of the current Covid-19 coronavirus, it is important to note some major differences in the Chinese and global economies between now and 2003:

  • In 2003 China’s GDP was 4% of the global total. Now it stands at 17%.
  • China’s economy was largely manufacturing and trade seventeen years ago, compared to consumption and services / tourism today. Government-imposed bans on travel will hurt more in the current environment. This is a blow to Japan’s inbound tourism boom for example.
  • In 2003 the Chinese currency was still pegged to the dollar. Now currency markets are freer, which could mean a weakening of the Yuan.
  • The global economy in 2003 was in a much earlier phase of the business cycle and global cooperation in trade was increasing, in contrast to the “trade wars” that have characterised the last 12 months.
  • On the other hand, monetary policy in both China and the west is now far more supportive than it was in 2003.

Clearly the economic impact this time around will depend on how long the epidemic lasts and how far it spreads. Countries close to China will obviously be impacted more severely. Typically the effect of a disease outbreak on market confidence can far exceed it’s actual impact. Once things are under control the recovery should be fairly swift, although there are plenty of other factors that could influence markets in the coming months.

Once again, refraining from panic decisions and staying diversified is perhaps the best advice for investors.

Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.

 

 

 

Coronavirus – How to Protect Your Investments

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What a year this month has been! I can’t believe I wrote a 2020 Investment Outlook just nine days ago and talked about trade and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as potential trapdoors for markets, without any mention of epidemics. Things certainly do develop quickly!

Most importantly here, the sensible advice when it comes to protecting yourself and your family from the coronavirus is to wash your hands thoroughly and often. There’s a lot of alarmist “fake news” out there but this article keeps things very simple.

So what’s the equivalent of washing your hands for your investment portfolio? In yesterday’s LinkedIn post, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio put it quite succinctly: “When you don’t know, the best investment strategy is to be smartly diversified across geographic locations, across asset classes, and across currencies.”

If you are a regular reader of this blog, then hopefully he is preaching to the choir. Here’s a post I wrote in October 2018 titled “Don’t Panic”.

A couple of points I would clarify for individual investors, and expats in particular:

  • Diversification is important, but make sure your weighting to each asset class fits your risk profile. Conservative investors and people close to retirement should have a heavier weighting to cash and bonds than a young, growth-oriented investor.
  • Dalio mentions diversification across currencies, which is by no means a bad thing, but remember it’s also important to build assets in your base currency to minimise currency risk.

So stay safe out there: don’t panic, wash your hands and stay diversified.

Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.

 

2020 Investment Outlook

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And just like that, another year is gone! After a long wait for the 2019 Rugby World Cup to get started in Japan, the six-week tournament went by in a flash. And now here we are looking forward to the Olympics. I hope 2019 was a rewarding year for you.

When it came to markets, it was one of the best years for risk assets since the Global Financial Crisis with the S&P finishing +30.7%, MSCI Europe +27.1%, MSCI UK (despite Brexit) +16.4%, Japan Topix +18.1%, MSCI Emerging markets +18.4%. Crude oil was +22.7% for the year and Gold +18.3%. This appetite for risk meant that safe haven government bonds were subdued, while US High Yield and Emerging Market bonds returned +14.3% and +12.6% respectively. Bitcoin once again refused to die and posted an impressive return of +95% for the year.

Looking forward to this year “Don’t expect a replay of 2019” seems to be a recurring message, particularly when it comes to equities. Once again Bloomberg have compiled a thorough Wall Street round up for people who have the time:

For those who like to keep it simple, here is a list of key themes to look out for:

  • The end of the bull cycle is getting nearer, but it is still not here yet…
  • Equity and bond market valuations are significantly higher than they were a year ago.
  • Central banks are likely to continue pursuing ultra-loose monetary policy.
  • Smart investors remain invested but are staying alert and perhaps reducing risk.
  • The recent escalation between the US and Iran highlights the potential for sudden geopolitical shocks.
  • There is still potential upside for gold if/when things get rough.
  • Don’t let the US election distract you too much. Politics are not necessarily a good indicator of market returns.
  • Trade is again likely to dominate headlines and unsettle markets from time to time.
  • The Bitcoin halving occurring in May is likely to dominate crypto talk – here’s a detailed and rather bullish post on that for those interested.

At risk of repeating myself year after year, planning and strategy don’t need to be complicated:

  • Have a plan! Read this post if you don’t have one.
  • Stick to your guns. Don’t let the noise divert you from your commitment to saving and investing. (the Japan market made most of its returns in the last third of 2019. If you weren’t buying in the first two thirds then you missed it)
  • Diversify and rebalance – particularly if you are heavily invested in stocks and coming off a good year.
  • Max out tax advantaged investments such as NISA.
  • Look for Japan stocks that are likely to benefit from the Olympic buzz (see what happened to The Hub stock price around Rugby World Cup time)
  • Keep an eye on what the bank of Japan are buying – see post here.

With that I wish you all the best for 2020 and hope you enjoy the Tokyo Olympics!

Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.

Japan ETFs for 2020

 

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Cheers everybody! I’ll have what they’re having!

Happy New Year! I wish you all health, wealth and happiness for 2020. Most of us are settled back into work now, and some of you may even be planning your investment strategy for the year to come. Perhaps you are considering how to allocate your NISA contributions, or just wondering how things will play out over the next 12 months? There is a lot of investment chatter around the Olympics of course, but it’s also interesting to note what Japan’s central bank is doing.

I saw the above chart on a tweet from Zerohedge towards year-end. It has been widely publicised that the Bank of Japan have been big buyers of Japan Exchange Traded Funds over the last three years, but what exactly are they buying? And if you were buying Japan stocks at this time, would that influence your choices?

It turns out that the BOJ don’t simply buy only the Nikkei or Topix indices. As part of their overall public policy, the BOJ send a message by focussing on stocks of companies that actively engage in capital and human resources investment. (see here) In order to encourage companies to invest in their people and long-term assets, the BOJ is willing to invest some 300 billion yen per year. (their actual purchases can be tracked here so you can keep an eye on whether they are still buying)

A big issue the BOJ face is that they are constrained to not purchase more than half of the market value of any one ETF. The rest should be held by private investors. There are only a handful of ETFs that fit the definition of capital / human resources investment ETFs and, as the Japanese public have been slow to wake up to the idea of investing in this area, it is hard for the BOJ to find anything big enough to allocate the whole 300 billion yen to.

What that means is, that if you invest in one of these ETF’s, you are effectively giving the central bank the ability to “match” your investment. Every ¥10,000 the public invest adds ¥10,000 to the capacity the Bank of Japan have to buy that same fund. That’s a pretty heavy hitter you’ll be investing alongside!

The following ETFs look like they would fit the investment criteria:

1479:JP Daiwa ETF MSCI Japan Human and Physical Investment Index

1484:JP One ETF JPX/S&P CAPEX & Human Capital Index

1480:JP Next Funds Nomura Enterprise Value Allocation Index

It’s also interesting to note what happens with the money that can’t be invested due to lack of capacity: It is allocated to a JPX-Nikkei 400 ETF. It turns out that companies in this index have been quick to wake up to the prospect of big investment from the BOJ and have been making an effort to increase capital and human resources investment, which then acts as a stimulus to the real economy.

So if you are a buyer of Japan stocks today, and I’m not saying you should or shouldn’t be, but if you were, wouldn’t you want to have some of what the BOJ are having?

Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.