It’s been a year…
November 2021 was when we heard the first whispers of the Federal Reserve reversing course and hiking interest rates. The very smart few realised right then that risk assets were heading for trouble and made their way to the exit. For the rest of us, things weren’t looking so bad. Tech stocks were hitting home runs, Bitcoin was over $56,000. Christmas was coming!
It always looks so clear in hindsight. Risk assets were, of course, swimming in a giant pool of liquidity. Low interest rates, massive covid stimulus, glorious liquidity! And the spectre of inflation, caused by that very excess, was about to prompt the Fed to drain the pool. The onset of war in Ukraine certainly did not help the cause, but those who blame Putin for the economic state we are in are (sometimes deliberately) missing the big picture. If there’s a lesson we can all learn from this year, it’s that liquidity drives markets. When central banks are cutting and keeping rates low, risk assets make money. When they start increasing rates, and draining that liquidity, look out below.
Risk-off assets have not behaved well either thus far. Your typical 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio is down almost 20% year to date. Even well-diversified investors haven’t really escaped the pain, but that’s how it can go when liquidity is sucked out of the market. One of the few bright spots this year has been energy, and that one does have more to do with President Putin than underlying economic conditions.
When’s the recession?
‘A recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity. A common rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth mean recession, although more complex formulas are also used.’ – Investopedia
Talk of recession has been swirling for some time, with governments even accused of changing the definition above to prevent the mood from getting too dark. The consensus view is that much of the world will be in recession for some part of 2023. It’s more of a when than an if thing, although the severity of the coming downturn is yet unknown. Unsurprisingly, stocks do not fare well during recessions – when income and employment decline, companies struggle to stay profitable.
Recessions are, however, usually accompanied by the cutting of rates and at some point, a trough is formed and both the economy and stock prices begin to recover. There’s that liquidity we’ve been thirsty for!
For those who can afford it, recession offers an opportunity for careful accumulation of growth assets. There is no need to try to catch the absolute bottom, just keep adding to your long-term positions.
What about Japan?
As discussed in previous posts, Japan has avoided the worst of the inflation that has caused so much trouble this year. This, coupled with the Bank of Japan’s commitment to continue providing massive liquidity, has also sheltered the stock market from a lot of damage, albeit at the cost of the yen. I have been buying Japan dividend stocks on dips throughout the year and am pleased to find myself in positive performance territory, with some nice dividend payments to boot. The capital gains can, of course, disappear quite quickly, but the dividends will still be paid.
Warren Buffet clearly sees something in Japan, as Berkshire Hathaway has just raised its stakes in the 5 major trading houses to more than 6%. This is a serious long-term investor who says he may not be done buying yet. (see Reuters article) Who would have thought that Japan would look so attractive in a year like this?
For a foreign resident, trapped in yen due to currency weakness, there are some pretty good options here to outperform inflation over the next few years. See my previous post for ideas.
Crypto really is dead this time, huh?
My thoughts on crypto winter were laid out pretty clearly in my Bitcoin is Dead post. It was always going to be ugly but wow…just wow! I’m not going to dig into the details of the crimes and insolvencies because if you’re interested you already know, and if you’re not you don’t care. Suffice it to say that human greed and leverage will always be a bad mix when liquidity dries up.
So is it all over this time? Of course, it is not. The Bitcoin protocol is no more affected by all the drama than it is by the outcome of the World Cup. Companies have blown up, and people have lost money, but Bitcoin didn’t do it to them. The protocol keeps churning out blocks, the next halving is around April 2024, and things will get interesting again after that.
If you know what you are doing, now is the time to average into BTC. It’s another accumulation game. If you want to study up during the winter, check out Jameson Lopp’s treasure trove of information and resources.
Also, take a look at this incredible chart from CryptoShadow:
And this one from Fidelity:
Lessons in crypto frequently have to be learned through painful experience, but if you are not learning them, you shouldn’t be involved. Here are my main takeaways from recent events:
- Do not leave your coins on the exchange unless you are actively trading, no matter how high-profile the exchange may be. Learn to self-custody or research multisig solutions. Find what works best for you and use it.
- Stay away from services offering interest on your crypto – they will make a comeback at some point and they are a massive house of cards. Locking up your coins with a centralised institution for a yield means you cannot move them when the rumours start and you go down with the ship.
Also a word on the other project you should be following. Since its merge and transition to proof of stake, the issuance of Ethereum has dropped significantly. The network that is likely to power the majority of NFTs and DeFi being deflationary, in a market as weak as this, is actually quite remarkable. We all need some hope during crypto winter and if I was going to pin it anywhere it would be on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.