Bitcoin is dead! (2026 edition)

So, the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is alive and well. Who’d have thought it? I asked ChatGPT how to say “I told you so” without being annoying, and it just laughed at me.

I did tell you so, though…

I wrote my last Bitcoin is dead post on June 6 2022. FTX hadn’t even happened by that point. If you are thinking of jumping in to buy the dip today, let that be a warning.

Everything you need to know is in that post.

The typical drawdown from the peak is 80%. That would take us to around $25,000. The people who spent 2025 saying the 4-year cycle is dead, and the bull market is just starting, were trying to pick a bottom at $72k yesterday. Now they’re staring at $62k. It’s only February, and the fear-and-greed index is at 9!

So, don’t expect a V-shaped recovery next month.

I don’t know if we see $25k, but I reckon we see low $40s. That’s a good spot to start accumulating. Of course, those kinds of prices could blow something up, and then we really would visit Goblin Town.

Those who know will hold their nose and load up. For most people, buying the deadest asset in the world will seem entirely too dumb. First, you get price-based capitulation. Then you get time-based capitulation. It will probably take a good chunk of 2027 before we start looking bullish again.

I don’t make the rules.

Japan’s crypto tax doesn’t change until next year. Not many people will be in profit by then! Adjusted for stock splits, my average Metaplanet entry price in 2024 was ¥55. I might get interested again in a few months.

Let’s keep this one short. There isn’t much more to say. If you felt like you missed Bitcoin, here’s another opportunity. Every single talking head will tell you you’re an idiot for buying it this year. You have to turn those voices into beautiful music. Or be brave. Or whatever it takes.

Accumulate responsibly. Never allow yourself to become a forced seller. Buy low and sell high.

See you on the other side.

Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.