I haven’t had much to say on markets for a while. We clearly entered the dumbest timeline, and no amount of TACO is likely to pull us back out of it.
Speaking of tacos, and to keep this post light, my friend recently introduced me to Taco Fanatico. We went to the Shibuya branch – there’s another in Naka-Meguro and even one in Nagoya. Cold beer and tacos definitely beat trying to trade this market…
If I’m not mistaken, said market is almost entirely driven by Trump’s social media posts rather than actual events. And, once more, I could be wrong, but the great dealmaker appears to be negotiating with himself. The Iranians have probably read the Chris Voss book. Trump doesn’t strike me as much of a reader…
You have probably had enough armchair geopolitics, so I won’t add to the discourse. Here’s BlackRock Chairman Larry Fink with two extreme scenarios:
The full interview is here.
In short, either the war ends, and things go “back to normal”, and markets revert to being insane in a good way. Or we get $150 oil for an extended period and a global recession.
Hope for the best and plan for the worst. Short-term investors would want to be defensively positioned. Long-term investors can, and probably will have to, endure some pain. A globally diversified portfolio, perhaps with satellite holdings in hard assets, is not going to be a cake walk, but you don’t have to look at it every day.
I think I summed up my views on how to plan effectively in noisy markets in my Back to basics post.
Asian economies in particular are in a precarious position. Japan is better prepared than some other countries, although the prospect of higher inflation, low growth and a floundering yen is not exactly mouthwatering.
That said, the Japanese stock market still has a lot going for it, and the opportunity is nicely summed up here:
I may also be biased, but with many people trapped in yen, the investment options are not too shabby.
I’ve been buying some stocks on the heavy red days, but am exercising caution. I even bought a little Bitcoin, despite the nagging feeling that lower prices await.
Be careful out there. It’s a great time to touch grass, admire the sakura and eat tacos.
Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.
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