Retirement Planning – Smart Money Asia

The yen carry trade explained

It looks like the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is finally ready to raise rates again this month. So, right on cue, out come the doomers to ring the alarm on how the unwinding of the yen carry trade is going to blow up global financial markets.

Should we be worried? How could a potential unwind of this trade affect investors in Japan?

What is the yen carry trade?

The core idea behind this trade is to borrow money in a low-interest currency (JPY) and invest it in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.

For example, a fund could borrow yen at less than 1% interest, invest in US Treasuries earning 3.5%, and pocket the difference. This works perfectly until exchange rates make a big move. Then things can get interesting.

A conservative estimate puts the size of the carry trade at around $1 trillion, based on Japanese banks’ foreign lending. Some estimates use the notional value of FX swaps and forwards using the yen to reach a figure closer to $14 trillion.

Of course, hedge funds are not necessarily just buying conservative US government bonds on this trade. A mountain of cheap yen is converted to dollars and other currencies and flows into all kinds of assets. A deep dive would likely reveal that a large portion of this trade has gone right into the red-hot Magnificent 7 stocks.

Why Japan?

The carry trade can take place using any currency with a low interest rate. Japan has been the primary go-to market due to its unique characteristics:

The lost decades following the bursting of the bubble in the early 90s
Deflation and slow growth
The BOJ’s long-term low/negative interest rate policy
Hence, the yen became the world’s cheapest funding currency

How the carry trade makes (and loses) money

This trade works based on the interest rate differential – the carry. With a stable or weakening yen, it will remain profitable. In this type of environment, it’s hard to miss.

Problems occur if the yen strengthens. If an institution borrowed yen at ¥150 to the dollar but later the yen strengthens to ¥130, it suddenly requires more dollars to repay the same yen loan.

The unwind then happens as follows:

Sell the dollar asset (treasuries/stocks, etc.)
Convert to yen
Repay the yen loan

This unwind puts downward pressure on the asset being sold, which could be US treasuries or global stocks. And the flood of capital back into JPY accelerates the yen’s strengthening. A relatively small move in exchange rates can snowball into something much larger.

Famous unwind events include the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. In 2024, we saw a mini unwind as the BOJ shifted policy.

Why does it matter to everyday investors, especially in Japan?

With the US central bank cutting rates and the BOJ looking to raise rates, there is a real possibility that the yen will strengthen in the short term. Most Japan residents will be relieved as foreign goods and overseas trips will become more affordable.

However, the unwind can suck out global liquidity and do some real short-term damage to our investments. Not many risk assets fare well in this kind of event, so be prepared for international stocks, Japanese stocks, high-yield bonds and crypto to take a beating. Japanese exporters, such as Toyota, are particularly sensitive as a stronger yen erodes their overseas profits.

So, are the doomers right this time?

Beware of people claiming that the yen will suddenly surge and stocks will crash overnight. The reality is:

Yen carry trade unwinds tend to happen in bursts, and not always in a straight line
Central banks will often intervene, verbally or via policy tools.
Markets tend to pre-position before the worst moves happen

You can already see this pre-positioning happening. The yen has strengthened over the last few days after the BOJ hinted at action at its next meeting. Note how BOJ governor Ueda is trying to communicate his thoughts in advance and avoid a “shock rate hike” a la August 2024.

People writing epic threads on X tend to overstate the timeline risks. Sharp moves can indeed happen. However, it doesn’t necessarily guarantee an imminent crash.

Should we be worried?

Concern about the carry trade unwind is most rational if you have:

Investments heavily exposed to foreign currencies
A portfolio dominated by global stocks
Income linked to export-driven Japanese companies

There is less to worry about if you have:

Mostly yen-denominated assets
A long time horizon
No plans to move money internationally soon

Concerns about a carry trade unwind are certainly not irrational. However, the real risk lies less in timing the event and more in understanding how currency moves can affect your portfolio and positioning accordingly.

So it really comes down to portfolio structure. Trying to predict macro events is insanely hard…

Ok, then how do I hedge against this?

Of course, some assets will benefit from a carry trade unwind:

The yen, of course, is the obvious winner – that trip abroad could get a lot cheaper next year!
Gold is historically a beneficiary of unwinds as investors deleverage and seek out safe havens. If the yen is rising, the dollar is usually falling, which is generally good for gold.
Long-duration government bonds generally do well as the world goes risk-off and money flows into the safest assets. Bond prices go up as yields go down.

In conclusion, don’t let the doomers scare you out of long-term investments, but be prepared for some volatility. Keep an eye on central bank rate decisions, the corresponding US-Japan interest rate gap, USD/JPY exchange rate and global risk sentiment.

Personally, I am long-term bearish on the yen, but in the short term, anything can happen.

It’s always good to keep some dry powder to pick up risk assets while investors run scared.

And make sure your passport is still valid for that overseas trip you’ve been planning!

Top image from Freepik

Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.

Bear with me

Markets are not looking so hot right now. I really hate to be bearish, but it’s becoming unavoidable.

Last week, Bitcoin made its first daily close below $100,000 in 188 days. Then yesterday it closed below the 50-day moving average on the weekly chart. This is always bad news for bulls. Some of the people who were telling us the 4-year cycle is over are still holding out for a reversal, but they are probably grasping at straws.

We are so done. Thank you for playing.

I know it’s unlike me to be so negative, but when a situation changes, it’s important to confront reality quickly. Crypto is heading into a bear market, and it’s right on schedule.

Initially, Bitcoin is acting as the pressure release valve as investors lose faith in an overheated risk environment. You will note how, over the last week or so, Bitcoin is lower when you wake up. Asia propped up the price in the daytime, and then America sold hard while we slept. Now Asia is selling, too.

Worse still, BTC tends to lead equities, and in my humble opinion, BTC is heading lower.

Stocks are already wobbling. In particular, the AI trade is coming under increased scrutiny. Nvidia earnings are due on Wednesday. I don’t think there are numbers big enough to satisfy the masses this time, although the numbers will likely be impressive regardless.

I talked about Michael Burry in my last post: In this economy?

Burry put on his Nvidia/Palantir short and then closed his fund. Now he doesn’t have to worry about investors trying to pull their money when the market moves against him. People are debating whether he is actually any good at calling this stuff, which is a valid question. It’s such an obvious trade that you wonder if it can really be that simple, especially with Trump there to pump the markets every time they stumble.

But it doesn’t look great to me. In the short term, at least, I’m siding with the bears.

Time preference is key

It’s ok to be bearish, but the big question is: over what timeframe?

BTC is a good starting point for this discussion, as it is highly sensitive to both global liquidity and overall risk sentiment.

When Bitcoin topped in November 2021, it was just as the Federal Reserve pivoted to begin a brutal tightening regime. Interestingly enough, in November 2025, the Fed is going in the opposite direction. In fact, the market was pricing in a further rate cut in December until the US government shutdown delayed the data and muddied the waters. Uncertainty around rates is a huge factor in sparking the sudden loss of appetite for risk.

The liquidity picture for 2026 actually looks pretty rosy. Trump is effectively going to gain control over the Fed, and he has the midterm elections to pump the market for. On the flip side of that lies a slowing US economy.

Bitcoin’s level of institutional adoption was meagre in 2021/2022. In fact, it turned out the industry was on the brink of collapse. And collapse it did: Terra/Luna, Celsius, Blockfi, 3AC, and, of course, FTX all fell during the bear market.

The picture is very different now. US Bitcoin ETFs have almost $120 billion in assets under management. $72 billion of that is in BlackRock’s IBIT alone. What’s more, the Trump administration is pro-crypto. This is not an industry on the brink of collapse any more. It’s just going to need to take a breather for a while.

Plan for the worst

The typical bear market drawdown from the peak for Bitcoin is 80%. So, worst case, we are going back to $25,000. Ouch! Not pleasant at all, but I would not bet against this outcome.

If ETFs and institutional adoption, plus a favourable liquidity cycle count for anything, which I think they do, we may not go that low. Personally, I’m not really interested in bidding $90k. I’ll get interested at lower levels. $50k seems a bit more like it. (this is my finger in the air, best guess if you are wondering how I got this number)

Here’s a little perspective:

What about stocks?

Nvidia’s P/E ratio is around 53. Investors are willing to pay that amount for each dollar of the company’s earnings. I probably don’t need to tell you that future earnings expectations are a little on the high side. The Magnificent 7’s average P/E ratio is around 28 to 35. Those expectations may well be due for a sharp adjustment.

The other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 are not looking so bad, although they could get dragged down somewhat in a Mag 7 correction.

Global stocks, Japan included, are unlikely to emerge unscathed, but we could well be looking at an interesting buying opportunity.

Personally, I kind of like the idea of reducing US exposure (particularly Mag 7) and increasing Japan. The only problem is then you get trapped in yen. Finance Minister Katayama is making the usual concerned noises about exchange rates, while taking absolutely no action to counter the yen’s decline. Real interest rates in Japan remain negative, and as long as they persist, the currency will continue to struggle.

Negative real rates are a boon for stocks, though. If rates somehow ever turn positive, it’s time to rethink.

All in all, it comes down to where you are in the financial planning process. I covered this in the Burry post, but here it is again in simpler form.

I see three key stages in the personal finance journey:

Accumulation – spend less than you earn and invest the difference into stocks and other high-growth assets. If asset prices decline, don’t panic and keep buying. In fact, buy more if you can.
Diversification – a mix of protecting capital, whilst continuing to accumulate. The key to knowing when to diversify comes down to three factors:

a) The data tells you – you hit your number and simply don’t need as much risk any more

b) You become conscious of the amount of money you have at risk and start thinking about what to do

c) Asset prices are considerably higher than the average price you paid when accumulating. Despite the wobbles, we are still in this zone for anyone who has been accumulating for a while. It may not last much longer, however…

3. Distribution – you begin living off the income generated from your accumulated assets, or simply spending the money

If you are in stage 1 or 3 and are properly allocated, a stock market correction should not bother you too much. If you are at stage 2 but have not diversified yet, the current window of opportunity may be about to close for a while. Don’t panic, but perhaps give it some thought.

Personally, I have been selling stocks that have done well over the short term, particularly tech/semi/AI-related stuff. A few Japanese tech stocks I owned got a big boost when PM Takaichi was elected and are probably due for a reality check.

In other business

My next casual meetup, billed as the Nikkei ¥50,000 party, is on 26 November from 7pm at Hobgoblin Roppongi. Everyone is welcome. You don’t have to talk about investing, and you don’t have to drink unless you want to. Some of us may need to!

Before you ask, yes, the event will go ahead even if the Nikkei is below ¥50,000. That is an achievement unlocked, and I’m sure we’ll be back above that level in due course.

Don’t get too bearish!

In this economy?

It’s been another interesting week. ‘Big Short’ legend Michael Burry returned to X to call out the AI bubble, posting charts that question whether the ongoing mega AI capex boom really matches demand. Burry pops up every now and then to predict disaster, and his hit rate post-2008 is not all that spectacular. However, he followed up by filing his investment firm’s 13F 11 days early, showing that he is short 1 million Nvidia shares and 5 million Palantir shares.

Money where his mouth is.

The market took notice and US tech stocks tumbled on 4 November. Japanese stocks followed suit, with Softbank Group dumping almost -17% over 2 days. This comes at a time when the US government shutdown is blocking the liquidity faucet and tightening things up considerably.

Crypto didn’t like it either, but hey…

Predictably, President Trump issued some positive comments about stocks and Bitcoin overnight, and the situation calmed down. Every time I think this market is ready to begin its descent into hell, I’m reminded that the guy in charge of America has a vested interest in keeping it above ground…

Clearly, Burry is hitting a nerve with AI bubble enjoyers. Here’s a great thread from Marko Bjegovic covering why he is probably correct.

The ‘K-shaped’ economy

You are probably hearing this term lately. The K-shape represents the latest expression of wealth inequality. Essentially, high earners and large corporations are getting richer as asset prices rise, while low-income households and small businesses, the lower leg of the K, are struggling to get by.

High-end products are selling, while companies like Chipotle are finding their customers poorer and less inclined to visit.

Here’s another way of looking at the K-shape, from a different Marko:

Speaking of liquidity and the AI bubble, Ray Dalio just posted about how the Fed is stimulating at an odd time. I’m not sure the Fed is really beginning QE, as he says, but it is certainly ending QT, cutting rates and taking an expansionary stance. This is something it would generally do when the economy is in trouble. Instead, the backdrop for the Fed’s easing is high asset valuations, a relatively strong economy, inflation above target and abundant credit. Not to mention a bubble in AI-related stocks – the elephant in the room, so to speak.

The Trump administration is taking a bold and probably reckless bet on growth, and particularly AI growth. What could go wrong???

Time to take profit?

We’ve been talking about a melt-up before a melt-down, but that’s by no means guaranteed, and we’ve already melted up a lot.

Stock investors, belonging to the top leg of the K, have done very well, but are now faced with a choice: remain invested and ride through the bubble or protect capital. As Michael Burry experienced in 2008, bubbles can keep inflating and punishing shorts for a long time before they finally pop. Younger investors can probably handle the drawdown, provided they are disciplined enough not to sell the bust. We all know the drill when panic hits: as the last desperate few capitulate, central banks will cut rates, stimulate, and markets will surge back over the next 12-18 months.

People who are getting closer to spending their investment money should probably think more carefully. There may not be a better opportunity to take risk off the table and diversify for some time. Nobody ever went broke taking profit, especially around all-time highs.

For people in between, US treasuries are holding up as a safe haven as well as anything else at this time. Spreading some of the risk also serves an often overlooked purpose: offering the opportunity to rebalance and buy the bottom in stocks if we do suffer a crash. I stand by my belief that anyone with a meaningful amount of money should be well diversified at a time like this.

The stock market is not the economy

Here in Japan, we are enjoying the Nikkei holding above the ¥50,000 mark. That doesn’t mean we escaped the K-shaped economy. In a rare quiet moment the other evening, I was thinking about Japan’s economy and why interest rates don’t seem to go up much. Aside from the rich asset holders, many people are struggling. Wages still lag inflation. 5kg of rice is almost ¥5,000. The lower/middle classes do not have a lot of money to spend.

Fewer people spending money is bad for the economy. The general expectation seems to be that interest rates will rise gradually. They certainly won’t rise quickly. Higher rates would mean higher interest payments on government debt. PM Takaichi is focused on growth, not inflation.

Should we really expect a meaningful rise in interest rates? I simply can’t see it.

If rates can’t rise, then the yen remains weak, prices increase, stocks and Tokyo property appreciate, and low-income families continue to struggle.

If all this is true, then what’s the trade?

Own dollars, own financial assets, own hard assets, and be kind…

Is offshore investing still relevant?

As you may know, I have worked as an independent financial adviser for many years. I first got involved in this business in 2002, and the world has changed drastically since then. Some of the financial products that were popular at that time are almost obsolete now. So, is offshore investing over? Or is it still something worth considering for the right person?

A note here: I have never used this blog to promote offshore products, and that is not my intent here. However, I’m probably as qualified as anyone to discuss this topic, so here we go!

Much has changed

In 2002, if you were an expat in Japan, earning good money and looking for a way to invest, your options were fairly limited. Opening an investment account in Japan was not something many people considered. Along with the obvious language barrier when it came to reading product information, opening an account would involve meeting with a broker from a Japanese securities company and going through their sales process. If you think offshore advisers had a bad reputation, local securities company salesmen were not much better – they were well known for heartily recommending whatever was booming at the time and throwing their clients in at the chuffing top of the market.

Therefore, speaking to a British guy in a suit and cufflinks and investing in the Isle of Man was usually a more palatable option. Of course, these guys operated on commission, and some of them did not have your best interests at heart. Buyer beware! Many people got duped into long-term savings plans they didn’t understand.

To be fair, some of these people partly deserved what they got. All these offshore products had terms and conditions readily available in English. You just had to get a copy and read them! Plenty of people managed to ask questions, read the documents and invest in a product that they actually understood.

These days, investing in Japan could not be simpler. Go online, choose a brokerage, fill in the initial online form (with your name in half-width katakana hahahahahaha!) and then post off copies of your residence card/My Number card. You can have a brokerage account and a tax-free NISA set up in a couple of weeks.

So, is offshore investing dead?

Other advisers may have different mileage, but from my perspective, the demand for offshore products is certainly down significantly. I attribute this to two factors: getting a low-cost brokerage account is very easy, and nobody wants to pay for anything these days.

Not that avoiding high fees on investments is a bad thing. It’s one of the simplest things you can do to improve your returns. However, when offshore advisory is done well, you are not necessarily paying a lot for the product. Lump sum investment products in particular have very flexible fee structures, and a good adviser will be reducing their initial commission and taking an annual management fee for servicing you and providing ongoing advice.

Of course, much depends on your country of origin, how long you plan to spend in Japan and where you will go next. Offshore isn’t a great fit for everyone. (Americans in particular, take note. NISA isn’t necessarily a great fit for you either, and you are likely better off getting US-specific advice and investing in US-based accounts.)

Here’s a simplified view of how I see the steps to allocate money:

Make sure you have an emergency cash reserve
Fill up anything tax advantaged first – in Japan, that would be NISA, iDeCo
Any money over and above that is up for consideration – it could be invested in a taxable Japan brokerage account, an international brokerage account like Interactive Brokers, or offshore.

Again, a lot depends on nationality and personal situation, so no advice here, but some of the benefits of offshore get overlooked in the relentless pursuit of low fees.

I will leave the offshore regular savings plans out of this, as they are somewhat outdated. But many people, including myself, still have plans set up years ago, and that’s fine.

The offshore portfolio bond is for larger lump sum investments. It’s essentially an insurance structure; the individual owns the policy, and the policy owns the assets. It is open architecture so policyholders can access ETFs, mutual funds and individual stocks. For Japan residents, you are not required to report capital gains and dividends within these policies as they occur. You report when you exit the policy and pay a one-time tax payment (一時所得) of around 20% of gains. E.g. You invest $100k and the policy grows to $200k – you cash out the policy and owe approximately $20k.

So you effectively get gross roll-up inside the policy. You can switch investments and take profits as much as you like without triggering a taxable event. For some people, that alone is worth the fees.

If you leave Japan, you just take it with you, and when you cash out, you may end up owing nothing here. Of course, some people may have to factor in the exit tax and the lookback, etc. It depends on amounts and timeframes.

Use of trusts

The other thing you can do with offshore insurance products is put them in a trust. Trusts can be very effective for estate planning, particularly for, but not limited to, British nationals.

In the case of Isle of Man assets, probate will be required on the death of the last policyholder before proceeds can be paid out of the plan. Placing the policy in trust avoids this lengthy and often frustrating process, allowing money to be paid out quickly to the beneficiaries.

Trusts allow the donor to maintain a degree of control over the assets and, in some cases, to have limited access to the capital. A discretionary trust, for example, can instruct the trustees to hold the assets until the beneficiaries reach a certain age before distributing the proceeds to them.

For individuals who are treated as UK long-term residents, a trust is an effective way to shield assets from UK inheritance tax. Trusts are also worth considering for anyone who plans to become a UK long-term resident in the future.

A note here: trusts will not help you to mitigate Japanese inheritance tax. Japanese tax authorities do not recognise foreign trusts and generally look through them and tax the assets. If Japanese inheritance tax is a concern, you should first do your own reading and then discuss with a local tax professional before taking action. Reddit is an incredible resource, but you should not be taking personal tax advice from there.

If you have an offshore policy that you have been holding onto and perhaps do not know what to do with, it could be worth discussing with your adviser as to whether it would be better to put it into a trust. If you have lost contact with your advisor, you are welcome to contact me. I can also assist with general advice on whether it is better to keep the policy or cash it in and invest elsewhere.

In conclusion

Offshore investing is generally less relevant than it used to be. However, it is far from dead. In particular, high-net-worth individuals may find there are significant benefits to investing in a tax-free jurisdiction, and/or taking assets out of their own name.

For simple day-to-day investing for longer-term Japanese residents, NISA and iDeCo are incredibly hard to beat, and local brokerage accounts provide access to a wide range of assets. We are really spoiled these days. If you need help getting things organised, don’t forget that I offer fee-based personal finance coaching!

Top image by Clker-Free-Vector-Images from Pixabay

Top retirement destinations

Here we are again. Every August, I lose a little more of my will to live in Japan. Summer is getting longer and hotter every year. It’s on a one-way track, too. I doubt it will reverse and cool down in my lifetime.

Of course, I live in the Kanto region, so I get what I deserve. We recently took a trip to Tochigi, near Nikko, and it was noticeably cooler surrounded by the forest there. If you are comfortable living away from the baking concrete jungle, Japan has plenty of great options. However, I’ve seen reports of 40-degree temperatures in parts of Hokkaido this year. Retirement somewhere else is sounding pretty good to me right now. Or at least summer somewhere else!

You have probably seen a host of ‘Best places to retire’ rankings already. They are often contentious, as everyone has their personal preference. I just took a look at International Living’s Best Places to Retire in 2025: The Annual Global Retirement Index. Whether you agree with the conclusions drawn there or not, it’s an interesting read. I get the feeling that many of the contributors on the article are American by the way they are gushing about countries that have decent, affordable healthcare!

In Asia, Thailand and Malaysia make the top 10. I wonder about how affordable Bangkok really is these days, but I think it’s easy to dial your lifestyle up or down depending on your budget. Thailand gets my vote simply for the food, which I boldly proclaim to be the second-best in Asia behind Japan. In pure value-for-money terms, the Philippines must rank pretty high, but if you are trying to escape the heat, I’m not sure it’s the right direction to be heading!

The usual suspects dominate Europe. Italy and Greece would be hard to beat for weather, culture and food. Portugal seems to rank highest these days, but at €2,500 – €3,000 a month for a couple to live comfortably, it isn’t exactly cheap.

I imagine somewhere like Croatia could give these countries a run for their money.

So, Panama?

I’ve noticed that Panama comes top of a few of these surveys. Proximity to America is possibly driving this. It’s certainly not the first place I would think of relocating to. Other than the canal and hats, I don’t know much about it. (Apparently, Panama hats are of Ecuadorian origin)

A little internet research suggests that the Central American republic has a stable economy, which is heavily reliant on the service sector. It is an international banking centre, and the world-famous canal makes it a logistics hub. It’s also popular with tourists.

No tax on foreign-earned income is nice. You can qualify for a pensioner visa if you have a pension of over $1,000. If you don’t have a pension, a $200,000 investment in real estate qualifies. You can also simply park the $200k in a three-year fixed-term deposit if you don’t want to buy a place.

“Imagine renting a modern, furnished condo for just over $1,000 a month in a world capital with great weather, New York-style nightlife, and every imaginable convenience. Central America’s only metro line, cheap Ubers, excellent shopping, and a vibrant dining scene await. Or imagine living in a coveted beach town where a golf membership costs $350 a month—that’s what my neighbors pay in Coronado, where I live.”

Well, that doesn’t sound so bad, although it is a little far from Japan!

Of course, it’s probably not necessary to fully relocate somewhere else. My sister just sent photos of her family holiday in a Welsh seaside resort: beach all day, cool at night and light until 9 or 10pm. It’s easy to forget how nice parts of the UK are in summer. And winter in my part of Japan is very mild these days, mostly sunny with very little rain. So a combination of the two would be a pretty good life.

It’s all very well saving and investing for the future, but what does your ideal retirement actually look like? I would love to hear from you – it might give me some new ideas!

Wales isn’t so bad – Image by InspiredImages from Pixabay

Top image by salocin1 from Pixabay

Taps the sign

It’s been a long week. Is it me, or are +/-9% swings on the Nikkei 225 index starting to feel normal? Traders must be loving this – at least the good ones.

I’m not so impressed. Of course, there are buying opportunities, but it gets a bit tiresome when markets swing this wildly based on the pronouncements of one guy who just can’t STFU for 5 minutes.

Orange Swan Event.

Click it, I dare you! And don’t get me started with the Simpsons memes.

Where was I? Tapping the sign, right. The free lunch quote has been attributed to Harry Markowitz, although I have heard Ray Dalio say something similar. It’s a drum I have been banging for years, sometimes with minimal effect.

When the stock market is going up, nobody cares about diversification. Why would I want to own bonds and gold and other stuff when stocks are on a tear? Just buy the index and chill, right? It’s easy to forget that stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down.

Until you get a reminder.

In 2002, psychologist Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his work on the psychology of judgement and decision making. Kahneman points out that individuals are more depressed with investment losses than they are satisfied with equivalent returns. In other words, people hate losing money considerably more than they like making money.

Big liquidation events are like waking up after a party. It was fun, but now it’s time to sober up and review your time horizon, risk profile and asset allocation.

Are you diversified enough?

If recent events haven’t troubled you, and you have barely looked at your investments, the answer to this question is probably yes. Carry on!

If things have been a little nervy, then maybe you were over-exposed.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for buying stock indices and holding them forever. It’s not a bad strategy, as long as you can stomach the downturns. And as long as you don’t need the money soon. And, it’s not like a diversified portfolio doesn’t go down in times like these either. When panic sets in, people will sell anything they can get their hands on, but pretty soon you will see a flight to safety.

An underappreciated aspect of diversification is the opportunity to tactically rebalance and take advantage of market events. I sold some of a gold ETF this week near all-time highs and bought stocks while everyone was puking them. I didn’t need dry powder. Just a little reallocation.

You can’t do that if you don’t own the gold in the first place. You have to find more cash.

A quick thought experiment

If you are reasonably young and earning good money, then the recent market gyrations are just a blip, but do me a favour: imagine you are 65 years old, about to retire, with a nice fat nest egg invested in the MSCI World Stock index.

And the market dumps 20% in a couple of days. It takes a breather over the weekend and then resumes dumping in earnest. 30% of your retirement pot is gone. Financial media is screaming about recession, trade war, deleveraging or whatever it is this time. Remember in March 2020, when the market crashed and we faced the reality that the entire world was about to shut down? The doomer economists are running victory laps, and the market looks like it is never coming back from this.

How do you feel?

Remember that feeling when you are making future investment decisions, especially as you get closer to spending the money.

Of course, what happened after March 2020 was that central banks slashed interest rates and unleashed a tidal wave of stimulus, and the markets came roaring back before the year was even over. But that type of thing comes at a cost – that’s why your hard-earned cash doesn’t buy as much stuff any more…

Ok, so how do we do this diversification thing?

There are various ways to get yourself a diversified portfolio. How hands-on do you want to be?

For the people who want to put as little effort as possible into it, you can simply buy multi-asset ‘balanced’ mutual funds. I recently came across a collection of Japanese funds that are divided up by age group: “Happy Aging 40”, “Happy Aging 50”, “Happy Aging 60”. The allocations get more conservative the higher the age. These types of funds are available everywhere. Simply dump your money into the fund that fits your time horizon and get back to whatever you’d rather be doing.

In my advisory business, for larger chunks of money, I recommend professionally managed investment portfolios fitted to the client’s base currency and risk profile. Yes, they cost more than an ETF, but they are incredibly well diversified. The asset allocation is reviewed annually, and every quarter the managers implement a ‘tactical overlay’ and buy more of the assets they like and sell some of those they don’t. These guys don’t just buy a broad stock index – they are breaking equity holdings down by style: value, growth, small/large cap, etc. Of course, the entire portfolio is rebalanced annually.

I also recommend a core/satellite approach for even broader diversification. That’s how you slot in the algorithmic trend following strategy that trades stocks, interest rates, currencies, metals and other commodities with very little correlation to any one market. Funnily enough, it likes volatile times like this.

For coaching clients, I take the knowledge I have gained from watching professional money managers and help them develop their own asset allocation using low-cost ETFs. Click the coaching link to find out more.

Keep it simple

Here are a few action points if you want to take on this job yourself:

Separate regular and lump sum money. Regular is the money you invest every month in a pension, savings plan or Tsumitate NISA. If you are relatively young, you can just allocate all of this to stock indices/funds. Let Dollar Cost Averaging do the work for you.

Lump sum money is a chunk of cash you have saved up that you are looking for a better return on. Here, you are going to want more diversification, and you should focus on the currency you are most likely to spend the money in (your base currency). The asset classes you want to look at are: cash, domestic (base currency) bonds, overseas bonds, domestic stocks, overseas stocks, property, and commodities. Hold more stocks if you are young, and more bonds and cash if you plan to spend the money soon. Allocate 70-80% of the lump sum to this broad portfolio, and the remainder can go into satellite holdings to beef up the areas you are most bullish on. For example, if you like Bitcoin, that’s a great satellite holding.

I have written plenty about base currency, asset allocation and core/satellite in the past. Feel free to take a look at earlier posts.

If you are gonna get really serious though, you are going to want to diversify your bonds.

Peace out!

What’s your Japan plan?

I started this site in 2017 and ran out of things to say about the basics of financial planning some time ago. If you are just getting started, I put together a thread of simple financial planning tips from my early posts, which you can view on X here.

The basics don’t change, but the environment can change drastically. If you plan to live in Japan for the long term, you are probably now figuring out how to adjust from living in a country where deflation was the norm to one where prices are rising. Looking into the future, one of the big questions is whether this inflationary environment will stick, or will Japan be back at zero interest rates and falling prices in a few years? How can we plan when we don’t know the variables we will likely deal with?

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future. – Niels Bohr

I have a client who was an economist at a financial institution for many years. He told me he always felt it was his job to have a view. For some reason that has stuck with me and I think it is important in my job too. It’s also important not to be wrong, though! I wish I could tell you I have always held the correct view and never been wrong, but I doubt you would believe me. I have, however, gained some experience over the years, which has helped me develop some skills in dealing with the uncertain future we face.

Strong views, loosely held.

Having a view is helpful but you don’t have to marry it. If something changes or evidence comes to light that proves you wrong, you can simply change your view. Don’t get caught up in the social media battle to be right about everything. In just the last few years, people have pivoted from being epidemiologists to vaccine experts to geopolitical analysts to macroeconomists to AI gurus and now, tariff experts.

It’s exhausting.

So, I thought today I would take a look at some basic data about the Japanese economy and share my view on what a person living here should focus on in terms of financial planning and investment.

Debt is a problem

Japan still has a strong, productive economy but it is not expected to grow fast. The predicted real GDP change for 2025 is 1.1%. (IMF) Government debt to GDP is currently 255%. (Trading Economics)

December 2024 CPI (inflation) was 3.6% and, in response, the Bank of Japan recently increased the overnight interest rate to 0.5%. The 10-year yield on government bonds currently stands at around 1.2%.

Japan is clearly not going to grow out of its debt problem. Demographics do not support the level of growth required to meaningfully reduce the size of the mountain. When governments can’t outgrow their debt, they usually end up inflating their way out. I struggle to see how the BOJ leadership can raise rates high enough to head off this outcome but they will of course delay it as long as possible.

It doesn’t look good for the yen

In January 2023, I wrote a post charmingly titled How screwed is the yen? It actually holds up pretty well for a two-year-old post. The problems facing the currency have not changed very much and we are still hanging around at 155 yen to the dollar.

I have re-read this excellent post by Richard Katz several times: The BOJ, the Fed and The Future Of The Yen. He notes that although the gap between US and Japan overnight rates may close, the gap between the two countries’ long-term yields is unlikely to follow suit, meaning the yen probably won’t recover as strongly as some think it will. Here’s an excerpt from that piece:

Some of the issues people in Japan are facing when planning for their financial future are as follows:

Continuing yen weakness
Concern that the pension system will not meet their retirement needs
Rising interest rates, but not rising too far
Negative real rates (interest rates lower than the rate of inflation)
Rising wages but negative real wages relative to inflation

People are already feeling the pinch. If you bought rice recently, you know what I mean. Furthermore, prices of 1,656 food items are set to rise this month according to this Japan Times article.

So, what can we do?

If you are a regular reader, I am probably repeating myself, but here are some action items to consider:

Check your base currency – are you really going to spend all of your future money in Japan? Are there big expenses overseas that you are likely to be on the hook for in future? If so, you need to save and invest some or all of your money in that currency. More on that here: What is your base currency?

JPY cash is trash – even if your base currency is yen, you are going to lose against inflation over time if you keep all of your money in the bank. Sure, you need to keep a liquid emergency cash reserve, but everything else needs to go somewhere more productive. CPI was 3.6% in December. The BOJ’s target inflation rate is 2%. How much is your bank paying you in interest?

Fill up tax-free vehicles first – another no-brainer. If you are eligible for NISA and/or iDeCo, they are the first stop for investment money. NISA especially is an incredible deal as you can access the money freely if you really have to. Bad luck if you are a US citizen – you should explore options for investing back home. And remember, if your spouse is eligible, they should be maxing out tax-advantaged options, too.

Yen-cost average – if you are young, regular investment in a global stock index fund/ETF is a perfectly good strategy. You can worry about diversification later.

Learn to diversify – lump sum investments require more care. And the closer you get to spending your capital, the more you need to protect it. Diversification across asset classes (not geographical areas) is how you do this. Own some bonds, stocks (growth, value, dividend), property (physical or REIT), commodities and alternatives. Use a core/satellite allocation to dial up/down risk.

Explore dividend stocks – Japanese dividend stocks offer a great way to keep pace with inflation in yen terms. More here: How to beat inflation with Japanese dividend stocks

Lever up – if you are here for the long run, owning property is still better than renting. Even if you are risk averse, I am still seeing 35-year fixed-rate mortgages at under 2%. Floating rates are still well below 1% and, in some cases lower than 0.5%. It is still very cheap to borrow money for a home in Japan.

Stack gold and bitcoin – the two kings of hard assets and possibly the only satellite holdings you need. Average in over time and hold. More here: Facing inflation – the four assets you should own

A fistful of dollars – if you are the entrepreneurial type, I recommend brainstorming ways to earn money in USD. As the global reserve currency, it will be the last one standing in the Fiat race to the bottom. Read up on the dollar milkshake theory. If you can get paid in bitcoin, even better!

To summarise: have a view, make a plan and adjust it as you go. If you need help, don’t be shy about getting some. You will get better at this with practice.

Top image by tawatchai07 on Freepik

Number go up

Being a financial planner by trade, I try to organise our financial future as efficiently as possible without going overboard. My wife and I both work and we have a reasonable income. We have a plan, we know what our numbers are for later in life and the big events in between. Most of all, we are flexible in that plan – our core investments are set and forget, but they can be adjusted easily. The tactical stuff is fun for me and I see it as a bit of a challenge.

Of course, things can go wrong: ill health, accidents, economic change and shifts in specific industries. You prepare for these as best you can and get on with living. Eat well, exercise, look both ways crossing the street, buy insurance etc. etc.

However, there are a few bigger things that bother me. I don’t think about them all the time, but they lurk in the back of my mind. For example, I don’t think AI is going to take over my job, but it could change the world considerably – gotta keep up with developments there. I could classify these things as outliers and conspiracies. Some may or may not have a meaningful impact and others feel a little ‘out there’. The best conspiracy theories have an element of truth, though, don’t they?

So, here are a few things I think about and how they relate to money, investing and how big your number should be:

Climate

I must confess, I don’t allow myself to dwell on what we are doing to the planet. We are clearly having an adverse impact and most of the damage is being done by big business interests who will not stop. The paper straws are cute, but they are hardly going to offset the widespread burning of fossil fuels and other environmental destruction. It’s not that I don’t think it’s important – it’s crucial to our survival as a species. I just know there isn’t much I can do about it. I separate our garbage, cut down on plastic and try not to waste resources, but I’m not losing sleep. Half the people in the developed world don’t even believe climate change exists so good luck to us coming together and taking action as a species. Do you remember the Covid mask and vaccine debates?

It is certainly getting hotter though! And it’s hotter for longer than it was before. After 27 years in Japan, it’s noticeable how spring and autumn are shrinking while summer gets longer year by year. What’s that going to be like in 10 years? How about 20?

I hardly think Yokohama will become unlivable in our lifetime but it could become pretty unpleasant. Imagine Japanese summer from April to October! Would that change your planning? Could it mean your ‘number’ needs to be bigger? The ability to escape Kanto, and maybe even Japan, for several months a year could become a key lifestyle choice. Maybe some people will want to escape for good. Wouldn’t that mean that the cooler, more livable climates in the world are going to see an influx of people who can afford to move? Parts of India are already hitting 50°C as a matter of course. That kind of temperature is more manageable in the developed world with aircon but doesn’t higher demand for a cool place mean higher prices?

As we move from climate change to climate crisis, how are governments going to address it? Again, remember Covid? It was all the people’s fault that it was spreading. They had to be stopped from travelling and confined to their homes in some countries.

Climate lockdowns anyone? Do you think they won’t do it?

It’s a dark thought, but people with flexibility financially will fare better than those who are struggling for money. Does that change your number?

Japan’s economic decline

Honestly, this one would bother me more if I was younger. I’m not sure Japan is a place I would be trying to build a life, career or business given the demographics and the economic outlook if I was in my twenties. But I’m not that young any more and I’m happy where I am. I would, however, want my kids to have the opportunity to live and work overseas if they choose.

The yen is a major concern though. My view is that short term it should recover somewhat when America begins cutting rates. I can see it getting to ¥130 or even ¥120 in the next year or so. However, longer term I expect the yen to steadily lose ground, particularly against the dollar. I talked about it in my ‘How screwed is the yen?’ post a year and a half ago. Staying alert for opportunities to earn in other currencies, investing in a combination of domestic and overseas assets and accumulating Bitcoin remain priorities for me.

Financial shenanigans

Grab your tinfoil hats for this one! In simple terms, the money has been funny since the 2008 global financial crisis. A lot of institutions that should have died were propped up at the expense of taxpayers and we’ve been getting screwed ever since. Economies and big business have become addicted to liquidity: cheap money, low rates. Low interest rates foster inflation, which is a tax on us all, but especially a tax on people who do not own financial assets.

Countries have too much debt and are not producing enough to pay it back. Japan is perhaps the worst offender, at least in the developed world. The debt spiral is probably terminal. That’s why the yen is doomed, and after that so are the pound, the euro and the dollar. I covered currency debasement in ‘Harden up your assets.’ There are tools to fight it that need to be deployed. Otherwise, your money buys less and less.

This is why governments are getting interested in the idea of Central Bank Digital Currencies. (CBDCs) At some point, they are going to need to perform a reset and substitute the current failing money with an alternative. And the powers that be never want to waste an opportunity to seize more control.

In essence, CBDCs are just another form of fiat money. But they come with a whole new opportunity for manipulation. Here’s an interesting video of Rishi Sunak being asked how he would enforce national service in the UK:

Controlling ‘access to finance’ is a government wet dream and CBDCs will make it easy. If you think that the possibility of losing permanent residence due to unpaid taxes is bad, wait until they freeze your bank account or apply a negative interest rate to your money until you pay up.

The public is sleepwalking into this one. You can already imagine how half the population won’t have any issue with it at all. ‘If you don’t have anything to hide, why would you need to keep your money private?’ will be the refrain. People who are well off have no concept of how less fortunate people can run into money trouble and fall behind on bills and taxes. The rich just don’t want to pay for a bunch of ‘layabouts and immigrants’.

The Bank of Japan already has a page on its website about Central Bank Digital Currency by the way. Cute, huh? No plans to implement it at present, but they are looking into it…

CBDC is one thing I think is really worth fighting against, but it will most likely be a losing battle. Sooner or later some crisis will come along and CBDC will have to be implemented ‘for our protection’. You can already see it happening with the AML/CFT mission creep.

Call me crazy, but I think that accumulating Bitcoin and other crypto is the best we can do to prepare for what is coming. Any money sitting in the fiat system will be caught in the net. In many countries, people who want to withdraw a few thousand dollars in cash already have to explain to the bank what they are planning to do with it.

Assuming the number will go up

So there it is. Like you didn’t have enough to worry about! From a financial planning perspective, my take on this is that whatever your number is, you will probably need more.

That’s to say, whatever amount of money you think will be enough to secure your future, maybe add another 10-20% for safety.

This is why I recommend dividing investments into core/strategic and satellite/tactical. The long-term strategic investments are focused on hitting the number. The tactical assets are aiming for a little extra. The crypto holdings are a shot at f**k you money.

Number go up. Act accordingly.

Bond investing – a simple guide

Of the six main asset classes, the one that stands out as perhaps the least understood is bonds. Although most people have a general idea of what bonds are and how they fit in an investment portfolio, they are incredibly complex financial instruments and misconceptions abound. I frequently hear people wonder if there is even any need to own them. So, let’s take a look and see if we can get a clearer picture of how bonds work and why they are useful.

Why do bonds exist?

Bonds are used by governments and corporations to raise capital. If a government issues a bond, it is borrowing money from the public to finance itself. Companies issue bonds so that they can expand operations or fund new business ventures. So if you buy a bond, you are loaning a government or a corporation money.

The key components of bonds

Issuer: bonds can be issued by governments or corporations. Each issuer carries a different level of credit risk, with bonds issued by developed world governments considered the safest. Bonds from issuers with a lower credit rating carry more risk of default and pay a higher yield to compensate for that risk.
Coupon rate: this is the annual interest rate paid to bondholders, expressed as a percentage of the bond’s face value. (often referred to as par value) So a bond with a $1,000 face value and a 5% coupon rate pays $50 a year in interest.
Maturity date: bonds have a specified maturity date when the issuer repays the bond’s face value to the bondholder. Maturities can range from a few months to several decades, influencing the bond’s risk and potential return. A 30-year bond is regarded as more risky than a 5-year bond as more factors can affect the issuer’s ability to repay the debt over longer periods.
Market price: the price of a bond in the secondary market can fluctuate based on changes in interest rates, credit quality and market demand. If the bond’s market value is higher than its face value, it is trading at a premium. If it is lower than face value, it is trading at a discount.

Understanding bond prices

Bonds can be bought and sold on the secondary market after they are issued. A bond’s value in this market is determined by its price and yield. The key thing to understand is that a bond’s price moves inversely to its yield. A bond’s price reflects the value of the income it can provide. So, if interest rates are falling, the value of older bonds that were sold in a higher interest rate environment increases and their price goes up. In a rising interest rate environment, older bonds become less valuable as investors would rather buy newer bonds paying higher yields.

You can see this clearly in the performance of the above iShares TLT long-term treasury ETF. After the 2008 financial crisis, interest rates were kept low to stimulate economic recovery. Just as rates began to drift upwards, Covid happened and rates were slashed again. Bond prices increased significantly in this low interest rate environment and so the price of the ETF rose. When the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in late 2021, bond prices fell heavily and continued to fall throughout the Fed’s tightening cycle, which is now nearing its end.

You could make a pretty strong argument that now is a good time to be buying a long-term treasury ETF like TLT. When the Fed begins cutting rates, bond prices will recover and investors will be able to capture capital gains along with income.

Conversely, having held interest rates low for longer than most other developed countries, Japan is now in a rising interest rate environment as the Bank of Japan attempts to slow down inflation. This means the price of Japanese Government Bonds is likely to fall.

Why own bonds?

Investors may choose to own bonds for a range of reasons. Those reasons include:

Steady income – particularly applicable to retirees and investors who require income for other reasons
Capital preservation – if held to maturity, bonds issued by institutions with strong credit ratings come with a low risk of loss of capital
Portfolio diversification – bonds offer a good counterbalance to equity market volatility
Capital appreciation – as above, bond prices can appreciate when central banks are cutting interest rates
A hedge against economic downturn – in the US and Europe, inflation is cooling and economies are slowing. This means the income from bonds will be able to buy more goods and services, making bonds more attractive

How to buy bonds

For a typical retail investor, there is no need to buy individual bonds. Just like equities, investors can choose from a range of active or passive strategies offered by bond funds or bond ETFs. Generally, a passive ETF provides perfectly adequate exposure to bonds without any stress or hassle. For example, Blackrock’s iShares ETF series offers 135 different bond ETFs – more than enough to build a diversified bond allocation. The fixed income part of a well-diversified portfolio will generally contain a blend of shorter/medium/longer-term government bonds along with an allocation to more risky corporate and emerging market bonds.

Be sure to pay attention to your base currency when you build such a portfolio. If you are planning to spend the money in the UK eventually, you should be looking at UK Gilts as the core of your bond holdings rather than US treasuries. Don’t be afraid to engage professional help if you are not comfortable organising this yourself.

As to whether owning bonds is really necessary or not, that’s obviously an individual call to make. I would comment that if you are young and just getting started with investing a little money every month, averaging 100% into equity ETFs is a perfectly acceptable strategy for the first few years.

However, after you have been investing for some time and have built up a larger pool of capital, it is probably time to start thinking about diversifying into other asset classes to protect against sharp drawdowns in equity markets. Bonds become a useful tool as you shift from an aggressive capital accumulation strategy to a more balanced portfolio that offers growth and income with a degree of capital preservation.

Hopefully, this post goes some way to explaining what bonds are, how they work and the benefits of investing in them. Feel free to comment or send questions any time!

How Screwed is the Yen?

First of all, Happy New Year! I hope you all had a fantastic holiday season. Keeping with the spirit of the last three years, we have not been anywhere! Ok, we did have a couple of mini-holidays here in Japan and a peaceful family Christmas and New Year at home, so no complaints!

2023 is shaping up to be interesting in many ways. I have taken on a freelance financial writer project that has diverted some time away from writing here. I will link to that at some point, once I am settled into the routine. It’s an interesting project and I am really enjoying the new challenge. However, if there’s one thing that writing to order and to deadlines has taught me, it is to be grateful for the freedom I have to write whatever I want here, hence the somewhat irreverent title of my first post of the year!

So how screwed is the yen???

Well, before we jump into that, let’s take a quick look back over 2022. As per my previous post, the lesson for us all is that liquidity drives markets, and in 2022 Jerome Powell was the first central banker to start draining liquidity. Throughout the year he continued to raise interest rates in order to fight inflation and, in doing so, pretty much killed the bull market in risk assets. Literally adding fuel to the fire, Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine and fanned the flames of inflation, particularly in the energy sector. The S&P 500 index ended the year -19.4%, the NASDAQ -33.1%. European stocks were down around -13%. And not only equities suffered: US bonds, the so-called safe haven asset, were down around -13%. Even well-diversified portfolios were down somewhere between 15-20% on the year. The only big gains were in energy stocks, with that index up over 60%.

So how about Japan? Well, the Nikkei 225 index was down -9.4% on the year, but I can tell you from personal experience that if you picked the right stocks you actually made money last year. So not bad right? The danger, however, lurked in the fixed-income and currency markets. The strong US dollar crushed everything in its path, with the yen coming off perhaps the worst of the developed market currencies, although the pound and the euro suffered too.

I just listened to a great interview with Brent Johnson, of Dollar Milkshake Theory fame. It gets interesting around the 16-minute mark. Here’s a quick summary if you want to save bandwidth:

During 2022, after years of zero to negative yields, inflationary pressure caused Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields to rise by 0.25%. That may not sound like much, but it had a huge effect on the price of JGBs. Remember, as yields rise, bond prices fall. As a result, the Bank of Japan had to repeatedly come out and reaffirm their commitment to Yield Curve Control. (YCC) In short, they had to do more quantitative easing, which meant printing more money and buying more bonds, which also translates to more yen going into the market and a weaker currency.

Keeping it simple – they had to devalue the yen to save the bond market. Why? Because the owners of those bonds are Japanese banks, pensions and insurance companies. Not the kind of institutions you want falling over. Things got so bad that, by the end of September, the BOJ had to come out and artificially support the yen.

Here’s where it becomes a problem: The programs you would have to enact to save the yen are the exact opposite of the programs you would have to do to save the bonds. To save the currency you have to raise rates. To save the bond market you need lower rates.

Then, at the end of the year, the BOJ made the surprise move of widening the band for their Japanese Government Bond Yield Curve Control from 0.25% to 0.5%. When they did that, the yen started to strengthen. However, if you allow interest rates to rise, what happens to bond prices? Down they go!

And herein lies the crux of the matter: you can save both the currency and the bond market for a short period of time, but ultimately, over a longer period of time, you have to choose one. Now, governments always say that they won’t sacrifice the currency, and then they always do. The reason is simple: the currency benefits the citizens the most, to the detriment of the government, and the bond market benefits the government the most, to the detriment of the citizens. Which do you think the government will choose to save?

Also if you save the currency, you will effectively collapse the banking system, which isn’t going to be pretty. And more importantly, as the government, if you sacrifice the bond market, you can’t raise money anymore. You essentially cut off your income. What government is going to do that?

So how screwed is the yen???

I try to avoid being sensationalist about this kind of stuff. People have been predicting the collapse of the Japanese economy for decades now and it still kept muddling through. The thing that has changed is that it was muddling through in a low inflation environment, which allowed the BOJ to keep rates low. If you are hoping that the value of your yen will hold up, you better hope that inflation calms down pretty soon! The thing that shocked me about the interview with Brent was not the fact that he thinks the yen is screwed – I always thought it would be at some point down the line – it’s that he thinks it is already screwed now and it gets really ugly from here. The ECB and the Bank of England are in a similar position, but Japan is so much further down the road. In terms of monetary policy, Japan is not just the canary in the coal mine. It’s the whole damn coal mine!

I wrote a post back in April 2022 called The Weak Yen Dilemma, where I basically noted that over time things tend to revert back to the mean, and that is what would eventually happen for the yen. In the realm of ‘nobody knows’, that is still a possibility but I am starting to think that from a financial planning/investing perspective we need to consider the big question: What if it doesn’t?

What if the yen is screwed?

I am not an intellectual and have no interest in a debate about the fate of the yen. As a financial planner and investor, I deal in probabilities. So I think it’s important to consider what we can do in case the yen is actually in trouble.

If you have been reading this blog for a while, you will know that I am the guy who never shuts up about base currency. I’m sure it’s annoying but here’s the thing: you can have the perfect tax-advantaged, low-fee account with the best asset allocation, but if you are in the wrong currency you are shooting yourself in the foot and by the time you realise it, it may be too late. If you found yourself last year saying “I want to do x but the yen is too weak” then you know what I mean. Base currency is not the currency you are earning in, it’s the currency you plan to spend the money in. So let’s take a look at what people living in Japan with different base currencies can actually do to prepare:

JPY Base Currency

If you live in Japan, earn yen and plan to spend it here until you die, you have the least to think about. The main thing you need to concern yourself with is beating inflation in yen terms. However, are you really 100% yen base currency? Might your kids want to study abroad? Do you plan to travel overseas regularly to visit family or for other reasons? If you think that Brent might be right, do you want to maybe allocate a portion of your investments to USD so you can take advantage of the eventual collapse of JPY?

USD Base Currency

If your BC is the global reserve currency and you have all your money languishing in yen, it’s time to start putting in some serious thought. You probably experienced severe pain last year watching the yen slide to ¥150. You’re probably waiting for it to get back to something reasonable, like say ¥110, before you convert your yen to dollars. Right? But what if it doesn’t get there? Maybe ¥130 is the best deal you’re going to get? I’m not saying you should panic and convert everything today, but you need to consider the probabilities. Maybe you should start converting a little every month, or every quarter? Again, I’m really not the alarmist type, and maybe things will gradually get back to normal. But what if they don’t?

GBP/Euro Base Currency

The good news for you guys is that the UK and Europe are just as screwed as Japan! Japan might go down first, but you are the next dominoes in line. So you may find that there is less of a differential between GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY than there is with dollar vs. yen. All the same, if you are not planning to spend the money in Japan, you should be saving and investing in your base currency. And maybe, given the situation we are describing here, you should consider owning some dollars too in case there is something to this milkshake theory?

Other Base Currency

Please forgive me for lumping everyone else together but there is only so much time that can be spent on one post. If you are from a country considered an emerging market, you are probably already well-experienced with currency fluctuations. Saving in your base currency is a great idea, but you should perhaps consider USD as an option too as it offers more stability. If you are going to retire somewhere like Australia or New Zealand then again, the local currency plus maybe a dash of USD seems like the way to go.

Outlook for Japan Investments in 2023

I will likely get into this in more detail in future posts. I’m thinking, given it is January, of writing a post on strategies for investing in NISA. But for the time being, here are some things to consider: Bonds are a no-go in my opinion. Stay away from them. Equities are likely to struggle just due to the general economic climate and the spectre of recession, but there are some stocks paying nice dividends out there that are probably a better option than cash. However, if the BOJ really does enter a tightening cycle, which has been unthinkable for longer than I care to remember, I would be pretty concerned about Japanese stocks. Remember that liquidity drives markets! Inflation, troublesome as it is, may provide a tailwind for property values.

I hope that provides some food for thought. Wishing you all the best for 2023 and let’s hope that the yen isn’t actually screwed!

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