Happy Friday! I thought I would provide a quick round-up of what is going on in markets. In case you missed it, here’s the most important five minutes of financial commentary I saw this week:
If you don’t know who PTJ is, here is his Wikipedia page. The Tldr is legendary trader and billionaire hedge fund manager.
The message here couldn’t be clearer: ‘All roads lead to inflation.’ Note the mention of Japan around the 4-minute mark. The playbook for how nations get themselves out of debt trouble is to inflate their way out. This is happening. Think what that means for your spending power. Think what it means for the yen…
So what assets does a guy like this own to face down the inflation threat? Bitcoin, gold, commodities and tech stocks. Hard assets and tech stocks. Simple.
I have had numerous conversations this past few weeks along the lines of ‘I want to own gold, but I feel like I’m too late.’ Yes, this is why I preach having the core of your assets in a diversified portfolio instead of just lumping it all into a global stock ETF. If you owned a diversified portfolio, you would have 3-5% in gold, and that part of your portfolio would be up +30% this year already. You wouldn’t have to scramble to buy some now.
This is an excerpt from a post I wrote in March 2023:
‘But global stocks have outperformed a diversified allocation over the last 12 months.’ – yes, there will be times when they will do that and there will be times when they won’t…
Here’s the simplest way I can put it: if you are young and in the process of accumulating wealth, then maybe a 100% stock allocation is ok. If you have already built up a nice nest egg, you need to think seriously about how to keep it. Spread the risk and sleep well at night.
When it comes to the satellite holdings, it’s pretty clear what needs to be beefed up right now: bitcoin, gold, commodities and tech stocks. You might already have commodities in your diversified portfolio, but with inflation looming, it’s time to get some more. Note that PTJ mentions how commodities are still under-owned.
Bitcoin is coiled
The Bitcoin four-year cycle is playing out exactly as expected and we are about to enter the fun phase.
The BTC ETFs are buying more BTC than is being mined every day. By a long way. Supply shock incoming. I don’t know how to explain it any more clearly.
If you are waiting around for a Japan Bitcoin ETF, I wouldn’t hold your breath – see this Financial Times article.
Meanwhile, Microsoft placed an ‘assessment on investing in Bitcoin’ on the voting ballot for its 10 December annual shareholder meeting. The Microsoft board recommends voting against the proposal, deeming it ‘unnecessary’ as the firm’s management ‘already carefully considers this topic’. This is a conversation that will take place in boardrooms of more and more major companies. Note here that Tesla still owns 9,720 BTC.
Gold breakout is happening now – are you really late?
Tesla leads big tech earnings
Tesla was the first Magnificent 7 company to report earnings this season and it got things off to a good start. The EV manufacturer’s stock just had its best day in the market in over a decade after reporting better-than-expected results. I understand why some people don’t like the CEO, but betting against his companies is a risky business. A +22% gain in a day is going to hurt some short sellers. More on upcoming Mag 7 earnings here.
That’s all I have for today. Wishing everyone a great weekend!
In summary, all roads lead to inflation. A core diversified portfolio and satellite holdings in bitcoin, gold, commodities and tech stocks is the best way to face down the threat to your purchasing power.
Top image by wirestock on Freepik
Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.
Smart Money Asia 