Tag: finance

Number go up

Being a financial planner by trade, I try to organise our financial future as efficiently as possible without going overboard. My wife and I both work and we have a reasonable income. We have a plan, we know what our numbers are for later in life and the big events in between. Most of all, we are flexible in that plan – our core investments are set and forget, but they can be adjusted easily. The tactical stuff is fun for me and I see it as a bit of a challenge.

Of course, things can go wrong: ill health, accidents, economic change and shifts in specific industries. You prepare for these as best you can and get on with living. Eat well, exercise, look both ways crossing the street, buy insurance etc. etc.

However, there are a few bigger things that bother me. I don’t think about them all the time, but they lurk in the back of my mind. For example, I don’t think AI is going to take over my job, but it could change the world considerably – gotta keep up with developments there. I could classify these things as outliers and conspiracies. Some may or may not have a meaningful impact and others feel a little ‘out there’. The best conspiracy theories have an element of truth, though, don’t they?

So, here are a few things I think about and how they relate to money, investing and how big your number should be:

Climate

I must confess, I don’t allow myself to dwell on what we are doing to the planet. We are clearly having an adverse impact and most of the damage is being done by big business interests who will not stop. The paper straws are cute, but they are hardly going to offset the widespread burning of fossil fuels and other environmental destruction. It’s not that I don’t think it’s important – it’s crucial to our survival as a species. I just know there isn’t much I can do about it. I separate our garbage, cut down on plastic and try not to waste resources, but I’m not losing sleep. Half the people in the developed world don’t even believe climate change exists so good luck to us coming together and taking action as a species. Do you remember the Covid mask and vaccine debates?

It is certainly getting hotter though! And it’s hotter for longer than it was before. After 27 years in Japan, it’s noticeable how spring and autumn are shrinking while summer gets longer year by year. What’s that going to be like in 10 years? How about 20?

I hardly think Yokohama will become unlivable in our lifetime but it could become pretty unpleasant. Imagine Japanese summer from April to October! Would that change your planning? Could it mean your ‘number’ needs to be bigger? The ability to escape Kanto, and maybe even Japan, for several months a year could become a key lifestyle choice. Maybe some people will want to escape for good. Wouldn’t that mean that the cooler, more livable climates in the world are going to see an influx of people who can afford to move? Parts of India are already hitting 50°C as a matter of course. That kind of temperature is more manageable in the developed world with aircon but doesn’t higher demand for a cool place mean higher prices?

As we move from climate change to climate crisis, how are governments going to address it? Again, remember Covid? It was all the people’s fault that it was spreading. They had to be stopped from travelling and confined to their homes in some countries.

Climate lockdowns anyone? Do you think they won’t do it?

It’s a dark thought, but people with flexibility financially will fare better than those who are struggling for money. Does that change your number?

Japan’s economic decline

Honestly, this one would bother me more if I was younger. I’m not sure Japan is a place I would be trying to build a life, career or business given the demographics and the economic outlook if I was in my twenties. But I’m not that young any more and I’m happy where I am. I would, however, want my kids to have the opportunity to live and work overseas if they choose.

The yen is a major concern though. My view is that short term it should recover somewhat when America begins cutting rates. I can see it getting to ¥130 or even ¥120 in the next year or so. However, longer term I expect the yen to steadily lose ground, particularly against the dollar. I talked about it in my ‘How screwed is the yen?’ post a year and a half ago. Staying alert for opportunities to earn in other currencies, investing in a combination of domestic and overseas assets and accumulating Bitcoin remain priorities for me.

Financial shenanigans

Grab your tinfoil hats for this one! In simple terms, the money has been funny since the 2008 global financial crisis. A lot of institutions that should have died were propped up at the expense of taxpayers and we’ve been getting screwed ever since. Economies and big business have become addicted to liquidity: cheap money, low rates. Low interest rates foster inflation, which is a tax on us all, but especially a tax on people who do not own financial assets.

Countries have too much debt and are not producing enough to pay it back. Japan is perhaps the worst offender, at least in the developed world. The debt spiral is probably terminal. That’s why the yen is doomed, and after that so are the pound, the euro and the dollar. I covered currency debasement in ‘Harden up your assets.’ There are tools to fight it that need to be deployed. Otherwise, your money buys less and less.

This is why governments are getting interested in the idea of Central Bank Digital Currencies. (CBDCs) At some point, they are going to need to perform a reset and substitute the current failing money with an alternative. And the powers that be never want to waste an opportunity to seize more control.

In essence, CBDCs are just another form of fiat money. But they come with a whole new opportunity for manipulation. Here’s an interesting video of Rishi Sunak being asked how he would enforce national service in the UK:

Controlling ‘access to finance’ is a government wet dream and CBDCs will make it easy. If you think that the possibility of losing permanent residence due to unpaid taxes is bad, wait until they freeze your bank account or apply a negative interest rate to your money until you pay up.

The public is sleepwalking into this one. You can already imagine how half the population won’t have any issue with it at all. ‘If you don’t have anything to hide, why would you need to keep your money private?’ will be the refrain. People who are well off have no concept of how less fortunate people can run into money trouble and fall behind on bills and taxes. The rich just don’t want to pay for a bunch of ‘layabouts and immigrants’.

The Bank of Japan already has a page on its website about Central Bank Digital Currency by the way. Cute, huh? No plans to implement it at present, but they are looking into it…

CBDC is one thing I think is really worth fighting against, but it will most likely be a losing battle. Sooner or later some crisis will come along and CBDC will have to be implemented ‘for our protection’. You can already see it happening with the AML/CFT mission creep.

Call me crazy, but I think that accumulating Bitcoin and other crypto is the best we can do to prepare for what is coming. Any money sitting in the fiat system will be caught in the net. In many countries, people who want to withdraw a few thousand dollars in cash already have to explain to the bank what they are planning to do with it.

Assuming the number will go up

So there it is. Like you didn’t have enough to worry about! From a financial planning perspective, my take on this is that whatever your number is, you will probably need more.

That’s to say, whatever amount of money you think will be enough to secure your future, maybe add another 10-20% for safety.

This is why I recommend dividing investments into core/strategic and satellite/tactical. The long-term strategic investments are focused on hitting the number. The tactical assets are aiming for a little extra. The crypto holdings are a shot at f**k you money.

Number go up. Act accordingly.

Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.

Are we shaking?

Anyone who has lived in Japan for a while knows the feeling: a faint tremor, something moving in your peripherals, like the train next to yours slowly pulling away and you’re not sure which carriage is moving. You look up at your partner/friend/co-worker…

Are we shaking?

Earthquakes are not always so subtle of course. Sometimes that faint rumble becomes something bigger. And sometimes, it’s just a heavy truck passing by outside.

Did you feel that? Maybe it was just me? Of course, the market is not just one stock but, if you had to pick a name that has driven US markets to new highs this year, it would be Nvidia. Sure, your Apples and your Microsofts have been strong too, but nothing quite like this. And last week we finally saw a hint of weakness. It would hardly be the first dip this year – questions were asked in mid-February and again in mid-April. What we haven’t really seen is a broadening out of the stock rally into other industries. Charlie Bilello points out here that the top 5 holdings in the S&P 500 now make up 27% of the index, the highest concentration since 1980. He also notes here that the index’s P/E ratio moved above 25 last week, the highest level since Q1 2021.

So, the AI hype-driven tech boom (or is it a bubble?) is still the dominant narrative driving the US market. George Soros once said: ‘When I see a bubble forming, I rush to buy, adding fuel to the fire.’ This is precisely what less savvy investors do too. However, they are rarely as clever as Soros when it comes time to take profits and get out.

Pockets of recession

US economic data continues to come in better than expected. Certainly better than small businesses and low-income families are feeling at this point. To wildly misquote one of my favourite writers, William Gibson: ‘Recession is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed.’

This one-hour podcast with James Lavish is worth a listen if you want to get a better understanding of the impending US debt crisis. He talks about how pockets of recession are already forming, they just haven’t spread broadly across the economy yet.

Are Japanese stocks stalling?

Speaking of debt crises, how is Japan doing? USD/JPY is creeping ever closer to the ¥160 level. Rubbing salt into the wound, the US has just put Japan back on the currency manipulator watch list. This could all be solved by the Bank of Japan raising rates in a hurry but it’s the debt that makes that rather difficult. Bad demographics, sky-high debt to GDP and a doomed currency – good thing we choose to live here for the harmony and the mild weather, desho?

After a fantastic run, there are signs that Japanese stocks are stalling too. (are we shaking?) Foreign investors, who played a significant role in driving the market to post-bubble highs, have largely been unloading in the last couple of weeks in the face of lacklustre economic data and persistent yen weakness. The Bank of Japan can no longer be relied on to buy ETFs on down days either. Stocks take the stairs up but they’re known to take the elevator back down…

Meanwhile, the Norinchukin Bank has gotten itself into quite a pickle. The fishers, farmers and foresters cooperative was long US treasuries and, trying to be sensible, it was currency hedged. That meant it endured the two-year rout in US bonds without any of the benefit of the strong dollar when converting holdings back into yen. As a result, it is having to fire sale around $60 billion of its $310 billion in foreign assets and eat the loss. I have preached for some time that currency is the biggest risk most investors don’t know they are taking, but I never considered getting burned like this by being currency hedged – ouch!!!

To sell or not to sell?

This is beginning to sound like a terribly negative post, but it’s really just a reflection of my thoughts about taking some profit and de-risking for a while. Just to be clear here, I am talking about adjusting tactical or satellite holdings. I don’t see any reason to make any changes to my long-term core investments. I own US tech stocks and a range of Japanese stocks in my core portfolio and am happy to keep them. However, I also own some of these same assets tactically – that’s to say I bought them at an opportune time with a shorter time frame in mind. Those are the ones I am getting tempted to sell.

Everyone is a genius in a bull market. You will notice though, that no one wants to tell you when to sell. Except maybe the macro doomers, but they’ve been telling you to sell the whole time markets have been rising, so let’s leave them out of this. For sure, it is smart not to fight the trend, and in US tech and Japanese equities, the trend has been unmistakably upward. There is also the fear of leaving money on the table and looking silly if markets pump after what turned out to be a minor correction.

However, we are talking tactical and that means buy low, sell high. If you are yen base currency and you bought US tech stocks a couple of years ago, not only have you made nice gains in the stocks, but the weak yen has boosted your profits significantly. You could be forgiven for cashing out back to yen and taking the win. The same can be said if you got trapped in yen and instead bought Japanese stocks to counter inflation and the market then went off to the races. That’s a nice win too, but you have to sell before you take the victory lap.

The big question is, supposing you sell, what do you do with the money next? If you are going to spend it on a sports car or a nice holiday, good for you! But if you still have to worry about keeping pace with inflation and currency debasement, you are going to have to find a suitable home for it. Sitting in cash for a few months and then catching a big drop in markets would be ideal, but we are not playing on easy mode here.

These are the thoughts I have on a Monday afternoon with the Nikkei up +0.5% to ¥38,804 and US stock futures looking steady. Perhaps I’ll just sit on this one for a while. Doing nothing is frequently the smartest play, but did you feel that? Maybe we are shaking?

Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.

Bond investing – a simple guide

Of the six main asset classes, the one that stands out as perhaps the least understood is bonds. Although most people have a general idea of what bonds are and how they fit in an investment portfolio, they are incredibly complex financial instruments and misconceptions abound. I frequently hear people wonder if there is even any need to own them. So, let’s take a look and see if we can get a clearer picture of how bonds work and why they are useful.

Why do bonds exist?

Bonds are used by governments and corporations to raise capital. If a government issues a bond, it is borrowing money from the public to finance itself. Companies issue bonds so that they can expand operations or fund new business ventures. So if you buy a bond, you are loaning a government or a corporation money.

The key components of bonds

  1. Issuer: bonds can be issued by governments or corporations. Each issuer carries a different level of credit risk, with bonds issued by developed world governments considered the safest. Bonds from issuers with a lower credit rating carry more risk of default and pay a higher yield to compensate for that risk.
  2. Coupon rate: this is the annual interest rate paid to bondholders, expressed as a percentage of the bond’s face value. (often referred to as par value) So a bond with a $1,000 face value and a 5% coupon rate pays $50 a year in interest.
  3. Maturity date: bonds have a specified maturity date when the issuer repays the bond’s face value to the bondholder. Maturities can range from a few months to several decades, influencing the bond’s risk and potential return. A 30-year bond is regarded as more risky than a 5-year bond as more factors can affect the issuer’s ability to repay the debt over longer periods.
  4. Market price: the price of a bond in the secondary market can fluctuate based on changes in interest rates, credit quality and market demand. If the bond’s market value is higher than its face value, it is trading at a premium. If it is lower than face value, it is trading at a discount.

Understanding bond prices

Bonds can be bought and sold on the secondary market after they are issued. A bond’s value in this market is determined by its price and yield. The key thing to understand is that a bond’s price moves inversely to its yield. A bond’s price reflects the value of the income it can provide. So, if interest rates are falling, the value of older bonds that were sold in a higher interest rate environment increases and their price goes up. In a rising interest rate environment, older bonds become less valuable as investors would rather buy newer bonds paying higher yields.

You can see this clearly in the performance of the above iShares TLT long-term treasury ETF. After the 2008 financial crisis, interest rates were kept low to stimulate economic recovery. Just as rates began to drift upwards, Covid happened and rates were slashed again. Bond prices increased significantly in this low interest rate environment and so the price of the ETF rose. When the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in late 2021, bond prices fell heavily and continued to fall throughout the Fed’s tightening cycle, which is now nearing its end.

You could make a pretty strong argument that now is a good time to be buying a long-term treasury ETF like TLT. When the Fed begins cutting rates, bond prices will recover and investors will be able to capture capital gains along with income. 

Conversely, having held interest rates low for longer than most other developed countries, Japan is now in a rising interest rate environment as the Bank of Japan attempts to slow down inflation. This means the price of Japanese Government Bonds is likely to fall.

Why own bonds?

Investors may choose to own bonds for a range of reasons. Those reasons include:

  • Steady income – particularly applicable to retirees and investors who require income for other reasons
  • Capital preservation – if held to maturity, bonds issued by institutions with strong credit ratings come with a low risk of loss of capital
  • Portfolio diversification – bonds offer a good counterbalance to equity market volatility
  • Capital appreciation – as above, bond prices can appreciate when central banks are cutting interest rates
  • A hedge against economic downturn – in the US and Europe, inflation is cooling and economies are slowing. This means the income from bonds will be able to buy more goods and services, making bonds more attractive

How to buy bonds

For a typical retail investor, there is no need to buy individual bonds. Just like equities, investors can choose from a range of active or passive strategies offered by bond funds or bond ETFs. Generally, a passive ETF provides perfectly adequate exposure to bonds without any stress or hassle. For example, Blackrock’s iShares ETF series offers 135 different bond ETFs – more than enough to build a diversified bond allocation. The fixed income part of a well-diversified portfolio will generally contain a blend of shorter/medium/longer-term government bonds along with an allocation to more risky corporate and emerging market bonds.

Be sure to pay attention to your base currency when you build such a portfolio. If you are planning to spend the money in the UK eventually, you should be looking at UK Gilts as the core of your bond holdings rather than US treasuries. Don’t be afraid to engage professional help if you are not comfortable organising this yourself.

As to whether owning bonds is really necessary or not, that’s obviously an individual call to make. I would comment that if you are young and just getting started with investing a little money every month, averaging 100% into equity ETFs is a perfectly acceptable strategy for the first few years.

However, after you have been investing for some time and have built up a larger pool of capital, it is probably time to start thinking about diversifying into other asset classes to protect against sharp drawdowns in equity markets. Bonds become a useful tool as you shift from an aggressive capital accumulation strategy to a more balanced portfolio that offers growth and income with a degree of capital preservation.

Hopefully, this post goes some way to explaining what bonds are, how they work and the benefits of investing in them. Feel free to comment or send questions any time!

Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.

All-time highs!

I spent the last year and a half writing financial content for a broker. I enjoyed the experience immensely and learned a lot in the process. Unfortunately, the contract ended, but I now have 10-12 hours a week that have been returned to me. So, readers of this blog may notice some extra market commentary/analysis being posted here. I hope it is useful.

It’s central bank week, with both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) conducting their policy meetings. As expected, the Fed held rates steady at 5.25-5.5% while CPI came in marginally cooler than expected. The Fed was surprisingly hawkish, forecasting just one rate cut in 2024.

Some think the BOJ may actually tighten at their meeting. If they do, it will likely be a minor adjustment. There will certainly be discussion about reducing the purchase of government bonds.

USD/JPY is currently trading close to the ¥157 level. With no major change in the US/Japan interest rate differential, we can expect the yen to remain weak for some time.

US markets hit all-time highs

In the US, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hit fresh all-time highs overnight. Apple Inc (AAPL) rose again after jumping +7.3% on 11 June when it unveiled a range of AI-enabled features and software for its devices. Apple overtook Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) to once more become the world’s most valuable company. Apple’s market cap now stands at a staggering $3.27 trillion.

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) surged +13.3% after the cloud technology company announced two new partnerships with OpenAI and Google Cloud while also forecasting strong revenue growth in fiscal 2025. Broadcom Inc (AVGO) jumped +14.6% after hours on strong earnings and a big stock split.

TDK and Hitachi set new highs since listing

Japanese stocks are largely in wait-and-see mode as the BOJ meeting kicks off today. TDK Corp (6762) has set another new high since listing as electronic parts stocks related to Apple are bought up. TDK announced in December that it will manufacture lithium-ion battery cells for iPhones in India.

Hitachi Ltd (6501) also hit a new high since listing of ¥17,340 on 11 June. On 7 June, its subsidiary, Hitachi Energy announced that it will invest $4.5 billion to increase production of power transmission and distribution equipment by 2027. Hitachi shares have cooled a little in the last couple of days, despite the announcement of plans to invest ¥300 billion in generative AI in fiscal 2025.

At lunchtime on 13 June the Nikkei 225 index is up slightly to ¥38,831.

Crypto stocks rise

Bitcoin, being the quickest asset to react to economic data and central bank policy, fell the day before the CPI data release and immediately bounced when the numbers came in soft. At the time of writing BTC is trading at around the $68,000 mark. Crypto stocks fared well with both Microstrategy Inc (MSTR) and Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) up overnight. Meanwhile, in Japan, Metaplanet Inc (3350) announced the purchase of an additional 23.35 Bitcoin on 11 June. The company now holds 141.07 Bitcoins, acquired at an average price of ¥10,278,391 per coin. Shares are up +494% since Metaplanet announced the adoption of Bitcoin as its core treasury asset on 8 April.

Disclaimer: This should go without saying, but the information contained in this blog is not investment advice, or an incentive to invest, and should not be considered as such. This is for information only.